Good morning!
Novak Djokovic has done it again! The super Serb won his seventh Wimbledon yesterday, including the last four in a row. Stunning numbers any way you like!
The breakdown below combines all seven matches into a single dataset. These matches in 2022 are:
- rd 1 room Soonwoo Kwon 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
- round 2 def. Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
- Rd 3 rooms Miomir Kecmanovic 6-0, 6-3, 6-4
- Rd 4 rooms Tim van Rijthoven 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
- room sq. Jannik Sinner 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
- half def. Cameron Norrie 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
- final room Nick Kyrgios 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3)
So let’s take a look at Novak’s match stats to understand what he relied on the most to win Wimbledon again this year.
1: SERVING
- Aces = 65
- Double faults = 24
- Servos not returned = 35%
- First pass = 63%
- First serve points earned = 82%
- Second serve points earned = 57%
- Service Games W/L = 112/12
- Fastest first serve = 125 mph
- Fastest second serve = 115 mph
- Average first serve = 114 mph
- Average 2nd serve = 93 mph
- Saved breakpoints = 65%
- Points scored on serve and volley = 85% (23/27)
These are all really solid numbers for Novak across the board.
First serve points (82%) are really solid. By comparison, Nick Kyrgios scored only 77% of his first serve points in the tournament.
Second serve points scored (57%) is also a very high number, which was also higher than Kyrgios (53%) in the tournament. Novak’s 24 double faults may seem like a lot, but keep in mind that he has played 124 service games, so that works out to one double fault per five service games. There’s nothing wrong with it!
What’s fascinating to me is that he served and volleyed 27 times and won 23. Winning 85% of anything is an outrageously high number. If he was very comfortable with this tactic, why didn’t he use it more often?
2: RETURN
- Returns = 70%
- Return points earned compared to first serve = 32%
- Turn points scored vs second serve = 57%
- Winners return = 6
- Errors returned = 126
- Breakpoints won = 40%
The point starts in four ways. Novak had a winning record with three of them. Specifically, this speaks to his second serve win percentage.
- Novak first serve won = 82%
- Points earned on Novak’s second serve = 57%
- Return points earned on Novak’s second serve = 57%
- Return Points Earned on Novak’s First Serve = 32%
Scoring 57% of all points on the second serve AND on the opponent’s second serve tells the engine room about their victory.
3: RALLY
forehands
- Winners = 84
- Total errors = 188
- +/- = -104
backhand
- Winners = 42
- Total errors = 159
- +/- = -117
Novak had exactly twice as many wins (84 to 42) from his forehand than from his backhand. Novak probably has the best backhand in the world, but it’s not the same discussion when it comes to firepower on this side.
After subtracting winners from mistakes, Novak was -104 on the forehand wing and -117 on the backhand wing. Forehand beats backhand again!
4: LENGTH OF THE RALLY
Total number of points played
- 0-4 Shots = 67% (968)
- 5-8 shots = 20% (295)
- 9+ shots = 13% (193)
- Total = 1456
Most fans will walk away from the two-week Wimbledon with memories of the longer, more spectacular rallies Novak has played in. But the vast majority are short points in the 0-4 shot range.
Think about it like this…
Nearly seven points out of 10 (67%), Novak made a maximum of two shots on the court. Tennis is dominated by 0-4 rally lengths, and this is just another example of how short points really are.
5: RALLY LENGTH ADVANTAGE
- 0-4 shots: 541 won / 427 conceded = +114
- Shots 5-8: 164 won / 131 conceded = +33
- 9+ shots: 112 won / 81 conceded = +31
Novak overwhelmingly used his advantage in a 0-4 exchange where he scored 114 points more than he conceded. He only scored 33 points more than he lost in 5-8 and 31 points more than he lost in 9+. Rally length 0-4 has the greatest volume as well as the greatest advantage. The first four strokes consist of a serve, return, +1 serve, and +1 return. At this point, Novak’s unique skill set takes over the match.
6: GAME FOR POINTS
- Net points won = 73% (154/212)
- Base Points Earned = 55% (400/732)
- Points scored on serve and volley = 85% (23/27)
- Total points scored = 56% (817/1456)
- Average raid length = 4.12 shots
All these numbers are very solid and point to someone who took the trophy home. Getting 56% of the points is really the limit. That’s a really high number that only tournament champions can enjoy. Like getting 55% base points and 73% net points. Interestingly, Novak’s average rally length was around four shots (4.12). The beating heart of his rally is short points – not long.
Novak ticked all those boxes en route to his seventh Wimbledon title.
SUMMARY
If everything stays the same for the next 12 months, you can put him on the line for an eighth Wimbledon title. You’d be smart to take just one player and give the other 127 to someone else.
He’ll be a year older (36), but this man just doesn’t age like the rest of us. Grass is the ideal surface for his game due to the speed and ideal height at which he can play the ball. Grass takes over his spin and also allows him to strike across the court. This helps him serve, but can take away that advantage when his opponent serves, as he is incredibly gifted at rebounding.
Congratulations Nowak. Enjoy it!
Craig
